Public PhD Defence of Liisa Talving

On 18 November, Liisa Talving is defending her doctoral dissertation on “Economic conditions and incumbent support: when and how does the economy matter?“. The public defence takes place at 15.00 at the Senate Hall of the University of Tartu (Ülikooli 18-204).

Supervisors of her dissertation are Dr Piret Ehin and Dr Kristjan Vassil (both from the UT Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies), the opponent is Prof Paolo Bellucci (University of Siena).

Synopsis of the dissertation:

Academic research lends significant support to the expectation that there is a strong link between the economy and election outcomes. Voters hold incumbents responsible for the national economy: public support for governing parties drops when the economy performs poorly and increases when the economy grows. However, not all elections are determined by the economy. Economic voting is found often, but not always and not everywhere, and it remains unclear why that is. The recent financial and economic crisis has further accentuated the concerns as to the instability of economic voting. The majority of Western countries experienced steep recession, which should lead to major political consequences. Indeed, a number of governing parties witnessed landslide electoral defeat, but on several other occasions incumbents managed to maintain their position despite the unprecedented economic turmoil. The instability in economic voting was the main motivation for writing this dissertation. If the link between economic conditions and elections does not exist, then voters’ ability to assign responsibility for economic outcomes is limited, and this leaves leaders free to pursue whatever policies they please irrespective of their public consequences. However, when the mechanism of democratic accountability is in good health, then citizens maintain their ability to participate in the process of decision-making and help determine national policy.

The dissertation addressed economic voting from three different aspects. Firstly, it tested the overall strength of the link between the economy and political support. The analysis, which relied on an extensive dataset of surveys across nations and over time, demonstrated, that economic considerations have a strong effect on incumbent support. Citizens regularly observe national economic outcomes and shape their electoral decisions accordingly. Secondly, the work examined the performance of economic voting in Europe in the wake of the financial and economic crisis. The findings show that the statistical relationship between the economy and voting remained remarkably constant, even after the most dramatic economic recession in our lifetime, suggesting that the economic voting mechanism is largely immune to external shocks. Finally, the dissertation revealed a new dimension of economic voting by shifting the focus onto national economic policies. Citizens paid more attention to national fiscal policies after the crisis than they did before, and on many occasions held incumbents responsible for painful austerity programs. In fact, economic policies have emerged as one of the key predictors of individual vote choice next to more conventional determinants, revealing the new and multidimensional face of economic voting.

For the electronic version of the dissertation, click here

Forwarded by:
Maili Vilson
Research Communication Specialist
Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies
University of Tartu
maili.vilson [ät] ut.ee
737 6584