Workshop Pilots Wargaming Tool for Strengthening Resilience Against Hybrid Threats

The project, funded by the Network Plus for Analytical Behavioural Science in Security and Defence (NABS+) and jointly led by researchers from the University of Liverpool and the University of Tartu, seeks to improve institutional preparedness against hybrid threats, with a particular focus on disinformation and strategic decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. The project explores how organisations recognise, prioritise, and respond to complex and rapidly evolving crises, using wargaming methodologies as tools for learning and strategic reflection.

The workshop brought together eight colleagues from the Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies and the Faculty of Social Sciences, who participated in a scenario-based wargame and provided detailed feedback on its design, mechanics, and practical relevance. The session was facilitated by Dr Alex Hardy and Professor Simeon Yates from the University of Liverpool, together with Dr Stefano Braghiroli and Anna Beitane from our institute.

The wargame is inspired by Estonia's experience during the 2007 Bronze Night events, which the research team treats as a "near miss" case where different prioritisation choices could have resulted in escalation, strategic setbacks, or reputational damage. Participants were asked to navigate an evolving crisis scenario, assess emerging threats, allocate limited resources, coordinate institutional responses, and justify their decisions while operating under pressure and incomplete information. The exercise focuses on the challenges of prioritisation, coordination, and decision-making that institutions face when confronted with hybrid interference and disinformation campaigns.

The pilot workshop represented an important step in testing the clarity, realism, and usability of the wargame. Feedback collected during the session will now be used to revise and further develop the simulation tool, ensuring that it can effectively support future training, research, and policy engagement activities. Once finalized, the scenario-based wargame is intended to serve a broad range of audiences, including students, academic researchers, public sector practitioners, and policymakers interested in understanding and responding to hybrid threats and disinformation.

The next phase of the project will focus on refining the scenarios and game mechanics ahead of the project's final dissemination activities. The completed wargame will be presented and discussed with stakeholders at the project's final event in September 2026.

"Hybrid threats are characterised by uncertainty, competing priorities, and limited resources. Through this project, we aim to develop a practical and evidence-based tool that helps institutions reflect on how they make critical decisions under pressure. The valuable feedback received during this pilot workshop will allow us to further strengthen the simulation and enhance its relevance for practitioners and policymakers alike. At the same time, we see significant potential for the wargame to be used in teaching and research contexts, making it a versatile resource for students, academics, and professionals working on resilience against hybrid threats," said Dr Stefano Braghiroli, project coordinator at the University of Tartu.

This project is supported by the UKRI NetworkPlus for Analytical Behavioural Science in Security and Defence (NABS+).